Pollster.com

Rasmussen
9/1/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Nevada

2010 Governor
60% Sandoval (R), 36% Reid (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Brian Sandoval: 64 / 31
Rory Reid: 41 / 49

Fox News / Opinions Dynamics
9/1-2/10; 900 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Fox: Obama, 2010, Economy, Iraq)

National

Obama Job Approval
46% Approve, 48% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 80 / 15 (chart)
Reps: 14 / 83 (chart)
Inds: 40 / 50 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
22% Approve, 70% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
46% Republican, 37% Democrat (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 50 / 46 (chart)

State of the Country
32% Satisfied, 68% Not satisfied (chart)

Party ID
39% Democrat, 37% Republican, 20% independent (chart)

Chicago Tribune / WGN by Market Shares Corp.
8/28-9/1/10; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Chicago Tribune article)

Illinois

2010 Senate
37% Brady (R), 32% Quinn (D) (chart)

Magellan Strategies
9/3/10; 887 likely Republican Primary voters
Mode: Automated phone
(Magellan release)

New Hampshire

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
34% Ayotte, 21% Lamontagne, 17% Binnie, 13% Bender

CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
9/1-2/10; 1,024 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CNN release)

National

Obama Job Approval
50% Approve, 49% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 84 / 14 (chart)
Reps: 10 / 89 (chart)
Inds: 45 / 54 (chart)
Economy: 40 / 59 (chart)
Iraq: 57 / 41
Afghanistan: 48 / 47
Terrorism: 50 / 47

Do you favor or oppose the U.S. war in Iraq?
34% Favor, 65% Oppose

All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, or not?
37% Worth it, 62% Not worth it

As you know, all U.S. combat troops have been removed from Iraq but 50,000 troops will remain in
a non-combat role until next year. Which of the following statements comes closest to your view:
28% This was the right time for the U.S. to remove its combat troops
40% The U.S. should have removed combat troops before now
25% The U.S. should remove combat troops at a future date, but keep them in Iraq now
6% The U.S. should keep combat troops in Iraq permanently

Based on what you have heard or read about the events in Iraq over the past few weeks, do you
think that for all intents and purposes, the war in Iraq is over, or not? Would you describe the war in Iraq as a victory for the U.S., a defeat for the U.S., or
something in between?
4% Over, victory
1% Over, defeat
15% Over, in between
80% Not over

Rasmussen
8/31/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Idaho

2010 Governor
52% Otter (R), 36% Allred (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Butch Otter: 54 / 40
Keith Allred: 42 / 31

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 29 / 71
Gov. Otter: 57 / 41

Chicago Tribune / WGN by Market Shares Corp.
8/28-9/1/10; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Chicago Tribune article)

Illinois

2010 Senate
34% Kirk, 34% Giannoulias (chart)

Braun Research / CN2
8/30-9/1/10; 802 registered voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Braun release)

Kentucky

2010 Senate
42% Paul (R), 37% Conway (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Jack Conway: 50 / 23
Rand Paul: 49 / 33

Rasmussen
9/1/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Nevada

2010 Senate
50% Reid (D), 47% Angle (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Harry Reid: 45 / 51 (chart)
Sharron Angle: 42 / 51

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 48 / 50 (chart)
Gov. Gibbons: 38 / 59 (chart)

Rasmussen
9/1/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Massachusetts

2010 Governor
44% Patrick (D), 42% Baker (R), 8% Cahill (i) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Deval Patrick: 48 / 50
Charlie Baker: 48 / 36
Tim Cahill: 40 / 44

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 56 / 43
Gov. Patrick: 46 / 52

SurveyUSA / KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, KFSN-TV Fresno
8/31=9/1/10; 569 likely voters, 4.2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(SurveyUSA release)

California

2010 Governor
47% Whitman (R), 40% Brown (D) (chart)

2010 Senate
48% Fiorina (R), 46% Boxer (D) (chart)

On Saturday, political scientists at the American Political Science Association conference in Washington, D.C. will debut their models for predicting results in the House of Representatives. In this article, I put forth my own model that translates Gallup's final generic ballot result into seats. While the generic ballot has generally not been fantastic at forecasting House outcomes, Gallup's final likely voter generic ballot poll has proven itself to be a great predictor in midterm elections.

In 2002, Alan Abramowitz created a model based off of Gallup's final likely voter poll in every midterm election since 1950. What I have done here is recreate that model and included 2002 and 2006 data. Abramowitz's model estimates the amount of seats the Republican party will gain by how many seats they won in the prior Congressional election, the party in the White House, and the Republican lead (or deficit) on the final generic ballot. I have also added my own variable: whether the party in the White House has been in power for more than one term. It is important to keep in mind that this model is based off only 14 elections and the final Gallup likely voter poll (before then Gallup's polls can be bouncy). If past trends hold, the model will do very well at predicting the 2010 final House seat count.

This simple model is quite robust and explains a little over 97% of the variation in the amount of seats won by Republicans in midterm elections from 1950-2006. In addition to gaining more seats when they do better on the generic ballot, Republicans are also more likely to perform well when Democrats control the White House, and the party in the White House has been there for more than a term. In 12 of the 14 elections*, the regression's error is 5 seats or less. The model's error is never greater than 9 seats for any of the 14 elections.

So what type of lead do Republicans need on Gallup's final likely generic ballot to take back the House? Amazingly, they only need to be leading by 3% to be slated to garner 218 seats and win a majority by the slimmest of margins. If Republicans have a 6% lead, an error in estimate larger than this model has ever seen would be needed for Republicans not to gain back the House. A likely voter lead of 10% like Republicans had on Monday with registered voters, not likely voters who Republicans will do better among, translates into a cosmic 240 seats.

Other possible generic ballot margins to seat translations are

When Gallup makes the transition to a likely voter model, we will have a very good idea which party is destined to control the House chamber. Considering the current Republican position on the registered voter ballot, and how that has historically translated to the likely voter model, the Republicans look to be in mighty good position. Of course, November is still two months away.

*Gallup did not have a likely voter model in the fall of 1986.

Tom Jensen sums up the woes of Midwestern Democratic Governors.

Josh Kraushaar looks at possible House bellweather districts.

Steve Schale sees tough math for Charlie Crist in Florida (via Smith).

A team of psychologists release a study on the "Obama is a Muslim" myth; Brendan Nyhan and Jeanna Bryner have more.

Gary Langer discusses the impact of Iraq on Bush's popularity.

Nathan Gonzales asks if Rasmussen is better than its reputation.

The Telegraph lists 10 ways data is changing how we live (via Lundry).

Pew finds teens who text do so far more than adults (via Witt).

Rasmussen
8/31/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Alaska

2010 Governor
53% Parnell (R), 43% Berkowitz (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Sean Parnell: 59 / 39
Ethan Berkowitz: 49 / 42

Wilson Research Strategies (R) for GOPAC
8/29-31/10; 1,001 likely voters, 3.1% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(WRS memo)

Texas

2010 Governor
50% Perry (R), 38% White (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Rick Perry: 50 / 40

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/27-28/10; 1,306 likely voters, 2.7% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Alaska

2010 Governor
55% Parnell (R), 37% Berkowitz (D) (chart)

2010 House
55% Young (R), 36% Crawford (D)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Parnell: 50 / 36
Rep. Young: 49 / 44

Favorable / Unfavorable
Ethan Berkowitz: 41 / 36
Henry Crawford: 25 / 22

FrederickPolls LLC (D) for Charlie Crist
8/28-31/10; 500 likely voters, 4.4% margin of error
Mode Live telephone interviews
(Buzz Florida Politics post)

Florida

2010 Senate
35% Crist (i), 34% Rubio (R), 17% Meek (D) (chart)

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/27-29/10; 475 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Ohio

2010 Senate
45% Portman (R), 38% Fisher (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Less Fisher: 24 / 32
Rob Portman: 29 / 28

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 41 / 54 (chart)
Sen. Brown: 33 / 36 (chart)
Sen. Voinovich: 22 / 48 (chart)

YouGov / Economist
8/28-31/10; 1,000 adults
Mode: Internet
(YouGov release>)

National

Obama Job Approval
42% Approve, 51% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 75 / 20 (chart)
Reps: 6 / 92 (chart)
Inds: 40 / 59 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
12% Approve, 65% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
Adults: 43% Democrat, 37% Republican
Registered voters: 45% Democrat, 44% Republican (chart)

State of the Country
28% Right Direction, 57% Wrong track (chart)

Rasmussen
9/1/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Florida

2010 Governor
48% Sink (D), 47% Scott (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Rick Scott: 49 / 45
Alex Sink: 54 / 35